India’s sudden suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, 2025, is an unprecedented escalation of the Kashmir crisis. In a move initiated by a recent militant attack on Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives, it suspends critical data exchanges regarding river flows and cripples the Permanent Indus Commission, even as rivers keep flowing. With more than 90% of Pakistan’s 18 million hectares of cultivated land and almost 30% of its power generation reliant on the Indus basin, the act may lead to food insecurity, power shortages, and rural distress in the water-scarce country.
Background of the Indus Waters Treaty
Facilitated by the World Bank and executed on 19 September 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated India the three eastern tributaries (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and gave Pakistan the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). India has only limited run-of-the-river rights and water-storage capacity on the western rivers, while the settlement guarantees compulsory hydrological information sharing and a three-stage dispute settlement process through bilateral negotiations, good-offices, and binding arbitration
Aftermath of Attack on Pahalgam
On 22 April, terrorists firing on tourists in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley. At least 26 civilians were killed in the attack, including 25 Indian tourists from various parts of India, 1 local from Jammu and Kashmir and two foreign tourists (one each from Nepal and the United Arab Emirates). At least 20 others were injured. Witnesses stated that most of the victims were male, and the dead included those from the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Gujarat, Haryana, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, as well as injured from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The casualties included an Indian Navy officer and an Intelligence Bureau official. Source: Wikipedia
India downgraded diplomatic relations within 24 hours, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, shut off bilateral trade, canceled Pakistani visas, and closed down the Wagah land border. Islamabad retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian airlines and labeling India’s act as “water warfare,” threatening that an effort to militarize shared rivers would constitute an act of war.
Effect on Pakistan’s Farmlands and Power Sector
The Indus basin irrigates over 90% of Pakistan’s cropland, supporting staple crops such as wheat and rice. Without timely forecasts and reservoir information, sowing schedules and flood-control operations would break down, threatening rural livelihoods and inflating food prices. Meanwhile, Tarbela and Mangla dams—backbone of Pakistan’s hydroelectric fleet—provide about 30% of the country’s power. Without reliable data, operators would have to shut down turbines or compromise dam safety, worsening long-standing power shortages and increasing reliance on expensive thermal generation. Pakistan’s per-capita renewable supply has declined from 1,000 m³ in 2021 to an estimated 750 m³ now, less than 1,000 m³, the water-scarcity benchmark.
Restoring the Permanent Indus Commission and resuming hydrological exchanges seems difficult for Pakistan. Alternatively, Islamabad might choose to use the treaty’s dispute process through the World Bank for binding arbitration—a route, long and difficult.